NANOG Internet predictions for 2010

From: "Bill St.Arnaud" <> To: <> Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 12:27:39 -0400 [NANOG is the North American Network Operators Group and involves most of the engineers and techies who make the Internet actually work - so they have a unique perspective on future trends and directions. The actual and predicated growth of video traffic is startling -- BSA] Hi - At a content forum and NANOG in June 2006 I led some discussions involving predictions for what the Internet might look like in 2010. What makes this so interesting is that so many perspectives highlighted so many potential futures that others had not considered. When you then discuss the implications of such varying futures, again with a diverse crowd, you end up with a lively discussion and, well, some potential futures you may not have considered. I've tried to list some of these predictions from the Content Provider crowd and the ISP NANOG crowd here. Content Provider Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------ Here is the question I put to a group of Content Providers at a content forum: "We are sitting around this table in 2010 and we are commenting how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. Video streaming volume has grown 100 fold 2. Last mile wireless replaced local loop 3. Botnets (DDOS attacks) are still an issue 4. Non-mechanical (i.e. Flash) Drives replaced internal hard drives on laptops 5. 10% of all cell phones are now video phones 6. We have cell phones that we actually like 7. The U.S. is insignificant traffic wise relative to the rest of the world 8. Most popular question discussed around the table: 'How do we operate business in China?' 9. No online privacy. And the gov't watches everything 10. 18-25 demographic is best reached w/ads on the Internet 11. Next Gen 3D on-line Social Networks are so successful 12. No physical network interfaces are needed 13. We will big brother ourselves (video cams 'who scraped my car?') 14. So many special purpose Internet apps - in car google maps, live traffic updates, etc. 15. So much of our personal information is on the net 16. Video IM emerged as a dominant app 17. P2P will emerge for non-pirated videos - DRM in place and embraced 18. Voice calls are free, bundled with other things [some additional notable predictions from this group, but did not = receive simple majority validation] IPTV replaces cable TV IPv6 is adopted = Massive Internet Collapse - Metcalfe regurgitates his column Flexible screen deployment SPAM is no longer a problem in 2010 Windows embraces = distributed computing Net is not Neutral Powerline Broadband emerges FTTH massive deployment Internet Service Providers Predictions for 2010 ------------------------------------------------------------------ We didn't get to do this at the Peering BOF at NANOG, but I did some = table discussions outside in the hallways. There there was no voting so I am listing a subset of the predictions that seemed to resonate among a = couple dozen or so folks at the hallway tables where question was discussed: "We are sitting around this table in 2010 at NANOG and we are commenting = how remarkable the last few years have been, specifically that:" 1. We have 10G network interface(s) on laptops (I assumed wired, but someone else might have been thinking wireless) 2. $5/mbps is the common/standard price of transit (other prediction was $30/mbps) 3. Internet traffic is now so heavily localized (as in 75% of telephone calls are across town type of thing but for the Internet) 4. Ad revenue will cover the cost/or subsidize significantly of DSL 5. 90% of Internet bits will be video traffic 6. VoIP traffic exceeds the PSTN traffic 7. Private networks predominantly migrate to overlays over the Internet 8. Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs) are serious competitive threat to DSL and Cable Internet 9. Sprint is bought by Time Warner 10. Cable companies form cabal & hookup with Sprint or Level 3 11. Government passes Net Neutrality Law of some flavor 12. Earthlink successfully reinvents themselves as Wireless Metro player in Response to ATT and Verizon 13. 40% paid or subscription as opposed to Content Click Ads. Like Cable Company channel packages, folks will flock to subscriptions for Internet Content packages. 14. RIAA proposes surcharge on network access (like Canada tax on blank CDs) 15. NetFlix conversion to Internet delivery of movies to Tivo or PC, or open source set top box 16. ISPs will be in pain 17. Last mile (fiber, wireless, .) in metro will be funded by municipal bonds 18. Death of TV ads, Death of broadcast TV, Tivo & Tivo like appliances all use the Internet with emergence of targeted ads based on demographic profiles of viewer 19. Google in charge of 20% of ALL ads (TV, Radio, Billboards, .) 20. Ubiquitous wifi in every metro with wifi roaming agreements 21. Congestion issues drive selective customer acceptance of partial transit offerings 22. IPTV fully embraced by cable cos - VOD - no need for VDR and ala carte video services replace analog frequency 23. Near simultaneous release of movies to the theaters, DVDs for the home, PPV, and Internet download to meet needs of different = demographics. (Some get dressed up for theater, others have kids and can't leave home, others wantto watch on the flight to Tokyo - all watch the new release = movie at about the same time) Video Peering -------------------- For what it is worth, some of this resonates with the Peering BOF Video Peering discussion. With YouTube pushing 20Gbps after only one year in existance, and with the 30+ companies that often chase a high profile = market such as theirs, we have a potential additional Internet load approaching 600Gbps! YouTube at the BOF said that their traffic is growing at about = 20% per month, so it may be reasonable to expect their traffic to double a couple times over the next year. Even if you discount the competitors traffic flows, video still appears as a *massive* traffic volume coming into the Peering Ecosystem over the next bunch of months. And yes, they are willing to peer the traffic for free so you eyeball networks and they (YouTube) don't have to pay transit fees on the = traffic. Bill //------------------------------------------------ // William B. Norton ------------------------------------- skype: pocketpro SkypeIn: +1 614 441-9603